This March 15, NBC article is about the huge ocean heat anomalies we are observing. Anthropomorphic Global Warming (AGW) models don’t predict this rapid warming - that’s what the article says. The article doesn't mention geothermal inputs. Too bad. Geothermal inputs are likely the reason oceans are warming so quickly.
I am borrowing heavily from a recent Weatherbell (WB) post by Joe Bastardi and reposting it here. WB is subscription, and his post is paywalled. I am a charter subscriber to WB, for thirteen years now. I will ask forgiveness. Maybe it’s free advertising. They really understand long-range weather forecasting at Weatherbell.
The four charts below are self-explanatory: Sea surface temperature anomalies have been increasing in tandem with increases in the Mid-Ocean Spreading Zone Seismic Activity (MOSZSA).
From Professor Arthur Viterito,
"Here is the graph of global temperature vs mid-ocean seismic activity. The reason the relationship is as tight as it is can be explained as follows: More seismic activity in the oceans = more geothermal heat is released into the ocean. More geothermal heat in the oceans = intensified thermohaline flow. Intensified thermohaline flow = more warm water driven into the Arctic and the Western Pacific Warm Pool. More warm water into the Arctic = more melting of Arctic snow and ice, leading to higher Arctic temperatures. More warm water in the Western Pacific Warm Pool = warmer temperatures along the equatorial Pacific (El Nino), the Kuroshio Current (northern Pacific), and east of Australia (East Australian Current). It's a giant heat pump. It's that simple!!"
But there is more!
Warming oceans release more CO2. How quickly the increased out-gassing occurs is not well understood. But there is no disagreement that warmer oceans increase atmospheric CO2. Everybody acknowledges this, (except science-deniers).
So, the oceans are warming, and as a result atmospheric CO2 concentrations are increasing. No one should dispute this - or dispute warmer oceans cause our climate to change.
Unfortunately, we know next to nothing about the actual, measured, geothermal inputs to ocean temperatures. It’s hard to say why the MOSZSA started increasing in the late 1980s. Because we have no obvious cause and no measurements of actual geothermal inputs forcing ocean temperatures higher, we currently make assumptions that geothermal inputs are insignificant. My guess? Those are inaccurate assumptions.
Unfortunately, it’s news you aren’t hearing. Modeling is hard. Don’t let the experts and the journalists make it easy to understand by leaving out the important parts of the story. The most important part? They just don’t know. We all need to curb our enthusiasm that we can model systems we don’t understand, and we ought to quit treating models like oracles of the future. There is a lot going on here and we are not in control.
"We ought to quit treating models like oracles of the future" Totally agree. Models are useful ways to studying things, but when you make them immutable, you turn the world on its head.
In my field it is known as GIGO, garbage in, garbage out. Often repeated and sometimes applied.